Russia will not strengthen Assad's regime in Syria — ISW
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The Russian Federation is evacuating naval assets from its base in Tartus. This may mean that Russia does not intend to send significant reinforcements to Syria in the near future to support the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
This is stated in a report by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
What happened
On Monday, December 2, OSINT analyst MT Anderson reported that, according to satellite images taken on November 30 and December 1, the following were present at the Russian base in Tartus, Syria:
- Russian frigates Admiral Gorshkov, Admiral Golovko, Admiral Grigorovich;
- Novorossiysk Kilo class submarine;
- tankers Yelnya Altai and Vyazma Kaliningradneft.
However, satellite images from December 3 revealed that Russia has withdrawn three frigates, a submarine, and two unidentified auxiliary vessels from the base. Overall, the Russian Federation has removed all ships stationed in Tartus.
At the same time, Russia cannot transfer these vessels to its Black Sea ports because Turkey is enforcing compliance with the Montreux Convention, which prohibits Russian military ships from passing through the Turkish straits. Therefore, Russia is likely to redeploy the ships to its bases in the country's northwest and the Kaliningrad region.
The ISW also recalled that on Tuesday, the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine reported that the Russian military command had likely transferred an unspecified number of forces from its African Corps to Syria. The "African Corps" refers to an organization created by the Russian Ministry of Defense to replace Wagner Group operations in Africa following the death of its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin.
ISW conclusion
Analysts note that they cannot independently verify reports of the deployment of African Corps units to Syria. However, if these reports are true, it would indicate that the Russian military command is avoiding redeploying regular Russian forces to Syria from their theater of operations in Ukraine.
The evacuation of ships from the Tartus base and reports of African Corps forces being deployed in Syria suggest that Russia is concerned about the possibility of Syrian opposition forces advancing south toward Hama (approximately 80 km northeast of Tartus) and threatening the base once again.
At the same time, the Russian military command is unlikely to send significant reinforcements to Syria in the near future to prevent such advances.
The other day, the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine said that the Russians had suffered significant losses in Syria. Moreover, the Russian army was surrounded, which is why Russia dismissed Sergei Kisel, the commander of the Russian group of troops in the Arab Republic.
We also reported that the rebels in Syria captured Russian equipment and an airplane. This happened during a rapid offensive against Russian troops.
