Russian elites are disappointed with Putin's strategy in the war
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According to information published by Meduza, Russian elites are growing frustrated with Vladimir Putin's strategy in the war against Ukraine. Representatives of the Russian presidential administration, the State Duma and regional governments are concerned about the lack of a clear strategy for ending the war, negotiations, and the consequences of Western sanctions for the country's economy in the future.
This is stated in a report by analysts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Russian security officials want Putin to wage a fiercer war against Ukraine
According to the newspaper's sources, senior security officials are the most frustrated. They believe that Russia lacks the resources to wage a successful war and insist on mobilization and putting the economy under martial law. At the same time, it is noted that Putin avoids such decisions, fearing their unpopularity among the population and negative impact on the economy.
Security officials recognize that the Russian army is suffering significant losses of personnel and equipment, and that the territorial gains it has made are not commensurate with these sacrifices. They call for increased efforts, hoping to compensate for the losses through additional mobilization and increased human resources at the front.
The slow pace of the Russian army's offensive
According to Meduza, in December 2024 the average daily advance of Russian troops dropped to nine square kilometers, indicating a slowdown in the pace of the offensive. The security forces believe this is due to a lack of manpower, but analysts point to other reasons: poor planning of military operations, low efficiency of commanders, and a critical shortage of armored vehicles.
The Russian army is increasingly using infantry assaults instead of mechanized operations, which limits the speed of advance. Even with an increase in manpower, such tactical advances are unable to secure significant victories or breakthroughs in the rear of Ukrainian troops.
Russian elites do not believe in Putin and negotiations
It is reported that Russian elites do not believe in the possibility of a peaceful settlement of the conflict on terms that do not include significant territorial gains. They are trying to create a "victory image" to somehow justify the war to Russian society.
According to sources, Putin and his entourage plan to negotiate only on terms that include recognition of Russia's control over all occupied territories, including those currently under Ukrainian control. However, such ambitions have no real military backing because of the army's significant losses and low efficiency.
"The ISW continues to assess that Putin is opposed to a partial conscription or further mobilization of the Russian economy, as such decisions would be very unpopular with Russians and would further burden Russia's labor shortage and economy," the analysts say.
Analysts believe that the Russian elite has misjudged the main problems of the war. The main factor slowing down the offensive is not the lack of manpower, but the low efficiency of the command, lack of equipment and poor training of troops. Even with additional mobilization, it will be difficult for Russia to achieve quick and significant successes on the battlefield.
Recently, US President-elect Donald Trump said that he expects to meet with Putin. Earlier, the German edition of Bild wrote that the Kremlin is allegedly thinking over a strategy for ending the war and preparing society for it.
