The calm before the storm — the essence of Putin's truce by ISW

The President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, announces a ceasefire in Ukraine as a propaganda tool and a change of strategy on the battlefield, not as a real progress towards peace. In contrast to the vision of the President of the United States, Donald Trump, who proposes a broad and mutual ceasefire as a basis for a stable peace deal, the Kremlin is acting solely in its own interests.

It is stated in the article by analysts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Putin has no good intentions when he talks about a truce

Experts believe that Putin deliberately declares short-term ceasefires during religious or national holidays to force Ukraine to agree to silence under the threat of diplomatic pressure from the West. In case of refusal, Ukraine runs a high risk of being criticised by the United States and its partners for allegedly not wanting peace. 

ISW analysts also state that such unilateral steps also allow Putin to create the image that he is interested in peace talks. However, the reality is different — in fact, he is simply avoiding even discussing the 30-day ceasefire proposed by the United States and Ukraine back in March 2025. In addition, the Kremlin itself determines the time and format of the truce, which also indicates Putin's unwillingness to make concessions.

Why does Putin need a ceasefire at the front?

Analysts emphasized that, in fact, Russian troops had already used the Easter ceasefire to shell Ukrainian positions, conduct reconnaissance, and attack Ukrainian military equipment on the front line. It is now expected that the "silence" declared by the Kremlin on May 9, Victory Day, will also be used to prepare for further attacks.

"Putin likely views the Victory Day ceasefire as a chance for Russian forces to rest ahead of future frontline activity in Ukraine and as a way to ensure that Ukraine does not conduct any significant long-range strikes against Russia during Victory Day celebrations. Putin likely does not view the Victory Day ceasefire as a serious step towards lasting peace in Ukraine," it is said in the analysts' report.

As a reminder, yesterday, on April 28, Vladimir Putin announced a three-day truce from May 8 to 11 to celebrate the parade.

Also, the Wall Street Journal publication has revealed the details of Trump's plan to end the full-scale war in Ukraine.