Support Ukraine’s Army
Youtube
Facebook
Russian economy is worse off than Putin claims, ISW analysis
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is trying to portray the Russian economy as capable of sustaining a prolonged war in Ukraine. This is likely to reinforce Russia's current claims about the inevitability of victory.
This is according to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The ISW assessed the state of the Russian economy
On 8 December, Putin stated that Russia could now gradually increase its "economic momentum" while maintaining low unemployment and moderate inflation. The ISW analysed these statements.
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War note that the Kremlin's recent economic policies indicate that the Russian economy is experiencing much worse times than Putin is trying to portray in his statements.
They explain that Putin has increased his efforts to present the Russian economy as resilient and capable of sustaining prolonged military action in Ukraine, ahead of the US–Russia meeting in Moscow on 2 December. Putin's remarks on 8 December are also likely intended to influence the ongoing peace talks.
ISW analysts suggest that Putin is trying to convince the United States that increased sanctions will not affect the Russian economy as desired and will not prompt him to compromise and end the war in Ukraine.
"Putin is also notably not discussing the ongoing war in Ukraine in his speeches on the Russian economy, likely in order to obscure the connections between Russia's battlefield losses and economic problems.
The Kremlin appears to be trying to dovetail its claims about the Russian economy with the false narrative that a Russian victory on the battlefield is inevitable.
Both narratives aim to push the West and Ukraine into capitulating to Russia's demands now out of fear of intensified, protracted Russian military operations in the future," ISW experts note.
They also add that the West and Ukraine can exploit several key weaknesses of Russia on the battlefield and in the economy to force the Kremlin into negotiations and real concessions, and that Russia's victory is not inevitable.
Read more:
