Russia wants to annex Belarus and use its citizens — ISW
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The Kremlin is at the final stage of a multi-year attempt to de facto annex Belarus, which will significantly strengthen Russia’s military and economic potential to achieve its geopolitical goals. There is already a threat to the existence of Belarus as a sovereign state.
It is stated in the report by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on Thursday, January 16.
Annexation of Belarus
The researchers point out that Moscow’s efforts to integrate Belarus through the mechanisms of the Union State have already yielded significant results, which requires NATO to rethink the consequences of such increased Russian control. Belarus is becoming not only an ally, but also a tool for the Kremlin to implement its global ambitions.
"Belarus is not just an ally of Russia; the Kremlin is turning Belarus into a strategic enabler of Russia’s ability to spread its power around the world. The Kremlin will use its recent but deep-rooted gains in Belarus to offset the costs of Russia’s long war against Ukraine, accelerate Russia’s recovery from the war in Ukraine, and help Russia prepare for future wars faster than Russia could on its own. Policymakers must begin to plan for a future in which Belarus is not only an enslaved nation but a de facto extension of the Russian Federation," it is said in the report.
Analysts note that Russia seeks to gain full operational control over the Armed Forces of Belarus, deploy permanent military bases, and establish a political union with common legislation and institutions. Economic integration implies the creation of common markets, a monetary union, and the free movement of labor. The strategic location of Belarus on the eastern flank of NATO, its economic resources, and its population are being used to strengthen Russian state power.
"The set of integration measures with Belarus desired by the Kremlin is so broad and comprehensive in many respects that it is more difficult to identify what Moscow would not control in Belarus if it succeeds than to list what Moscow would control," it is said in the report.
The ISW emphasizes that even without further integration steps, the progress made already poses a threat to the security of the United States, NATO, Ukraine, and the existence of Belarus as a sovereign state. The annexation of Belarus will help the Kremlin to compensate for the costs of the war against Ukraine, accelerate economic recovery, and prepare for future conflicts much faster.
Earlier, we wrote that Belarus is deploying its troops to the regions bordering Ukraine. In total, at least 1,500 soldiers have been deployed. The SBGS explained that Belarus is trying to demonstrate its power in this way.
