Transnistrian issue — why Moldova refuses to return the region by force

In recent years, the issue of Transnistria has returned to expert discussions. Moldova is ready to retake the region only peacefully, without the use of force.

Oleg Serebrian, Deputy Prime Minister for Reintegration in the Government of Moldova, and Dan Nicu, an employee of the Bureau for Reintegration Policy, prepared an article on the matter which was published by Evropeiska Pravda.

The Transnistrian issue

As part of the Moldavian SSR, the territory of Transnistria had no defined status, and its identity changed constantly over the centuries.

In 1940, the Soviet government created the Moldavian SSR and annexed the territory on the left bank of the Dniester River, where the Romanian-speaking population predominated. Since then, the five districts on the left bank of the Dniester River have been part of the republic without any special status.

After 34 years of Chisinau's lack of control over Transnistria, social ties between the two banks of the Dniester remain strong. People on both sides do not view each other as a threat.

Of the approximately 350 thousand residents of Transnistria, more than 90 percent hold Moldovan citizenship, and many receive social assistance from the central government.

"But the main conclusion from the history and current state of this land is that the left bank of the Dniester remains part of our country. This is the only possible way, and we must make every effort to reintegrate the region peacefully," the article says.

After 1992, Chisinau has engaged in a dialogue with the unrecognized authorities of Tiraspol through the mediation of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).

Serebrian and Nicu noted that they have supported these formats for many years. Although the 5+2 meetings became impossible after the beginning of the Russian military aggression, the working groups and the 1+1 format meet regularly. They believe that a peaceful settlement of the conflict is impossible without dialogue.

According to them, the commitment to the path of peaceful reintegration is yielding results.

"We managed to include the left bank of the Dniester in the negotiations with the EU on the Association Agreement. The Transnistrian region, along with the rest of the country, entered the free trade zone with the EU. So today more than two-thirds of the trade operations on the left bank of the Dniester go to the EU," the article says.

The abolition of the visa regime with the EU and other steps contributed to a significant increase in the number of Transnistrian residents who applied for Moldovan passports and became citizens. Most businesses in the region registered with the Moldovan authorities, which legalized their activities, including exports.

The desire to maintain domestic political stability in Moldova

Another important reason why Chisinau prefers peaceful reintegration is the desire to maintain domestic political stability in the country.

Pro-Russian political parties and influential groups are trying to destabilize the situation by spreading pro-Russian narratives and disinformation about the Moldovan authorities' alleged plans to attack Transnistria.

At the same time, the Moldovan authorities have enshrined the peaceful course as the main strategy in the legislation.

"Many hopes for successful reintegration are linked to European integration. Moldova became a candidate in 2022, alongside Ukraine, and in 2024 it began official accession negotiations. According to our estimates, the improvement of living standards on the right bank of the Dniester can become a catalyst for further integration of the left bank," the article says.

Strengthening energy independence is ahead. The right bank of the Dniester has already stopped consuming gas from Gazprom. The introduction of market prices will help break the vicious circle that Tiraspol structures use to finance the regime that keeps the country divided.

In conjunction with other initiatives, Chisinau is actively modernizing and strengthening its security and defense forces.

As a reminder, Moldovan police searched the homes of leaders of a group associated with Ilan Shor as part of an investigation into interference in the presidential election scheduled for October 20. 

Also, during a special operation in Moldova, the ideologue of Russian armed aggression against Ukraine, Dmitry Chistilin, who actively contributed to the annexation of Crimea and the occupation of Donbas, was detained.