Assad's defeat is Putin's defeat — ISW analysts explain why

According to a report by the American Institute for the Study of War, the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria is a significant geopolitical defeat for Russia. The overthrow of the Assad regime poses serious challenges to Russia's military presence in Syria.

This conclusion is contained in the ISW report.

Why the fall of the Assad regime is Putin's geopolitical defeat

ISW analysts note that the Russian Federation intervened in the Syrian conflict in 2015 to support the Assad regime, which was threatened after mass protests began in 2011. These events were part of the broader Arab Spring movement that led to the Syrian civil war.

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has long viewed "color revolutions" as a threat to the stability and security of his regime. He also opposes democratic movements aimed at removing authoritarian leaders under Russian influence.

The Institute's analysts emphasize that Russia's inability to effectively support the Assad regime in the face of the rapid advance of the Syrian opposition seriously damages its international credibility as a reliable security partner. This could complicate Putin's efforts to shape his vision of a multipolar world in which Russia plays a key role.

In addition, analysts say, the presence of Russian bases in Syria is now in question, and this irritates Z-patriots.

"Russian ultra-nationalist bloggers, many of whom participated in or covered the Syrian war, are upset by the fall of the Assad regime, seeing it as another failure of Russian foreign policy to exercise and maintain influence in areas of strategic importance," the report says.

As a reminder, Bashar al-Assad was the leader of Syria for 24 years, half of which the country experienced constant conflicts. It is known that on the night of December 8, he left the country and the rebels captured Damascus.

Meanwhile, the situation with Russia's two military bases in Syria remains uncertain. Bashar al-Assad himself has moved to Moscow, and his government is handing over power to the opposition.