Not in this century — Russia’s time to conquer Ukraine estimated

To seize all of Ukraine, Putin would need more than a century, assuming, of course, that he maintains the current pace of his offensive. Since the start of Russia’s new offensive in May 2025, Russia has captured only 0.4% of Ukrainian territory and has not achieved any significant objectives.

These calculations are made by experts at The Economist.

How many years Russia could need to occupy all of Ukraine

To fully occupy the Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions, the Russian army would need another five years at the current pace of its advance, while capturing the entire country would take 103 years.

According to the publication, since the start of the new offensive in May 2025, Russia has seized only 0.4% of Ukrainian territory and has not reached any major goals—since October 2022, after Ukraine’s counteroffensive, the frontline has hardly shifted. Meanwhile, Russian losses have been extremely high.

How many Russian occupiers have died in Ukraine

From the beginning of the full-scale invasion until January 2025, Russian military losses ranged from 640,000 to 877,000 personnel, of which 137,000–228,000 were killed.

By October 13, these losses had increased by almost 60%, reaching between 984,000 and 1,438,000 personnel, including 190,000–480,000 killed, according to the publication’s calculations based on data from Western governments and independent researchers.

"But Russia’s ability to fight on at today’s pace may also be coming to an end. And if Mr Putin pushes on regardless, he would be running another risk. After three years of thwarted offensives, a sudden collapse may become more likely in the Russian war economy than in Ukraine’s defensive lines," concludes The Economist.

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