No compromises from the Kremlin — ISW explains the talks' essence

The President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, does not want to end the war in Ukraine and is not ready for any compromises. Instead, he demands that Ukraine significantly reduce its army and military equipment. Meanwhile, Russia has intensified an information campaign to accuse Ukraine of disrupting the talks. 

It is stated in the digest of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Putin did not come to Turkey, but sent an entire delegation

The President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, ignored the invitation of Volodymyr Zelensky to bilateral talks in Istanbul on May 15, offered after a joint initiative of Ukraine, the United States, and the European Union on a 30-day ceasefire. Putin not only rejected the peace proposal, but also did not come to Turkey, despite the Ukrainian leader's readiness for a personal meeting. Instead, he delegated the talks to representatives outside his inner circle, demonstrating his unwillingness to engage in a good-faith dialogue.

The Kremlin appointed the head of the delegation, presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky, who also held talks in Istanbul in 2022. The delegation included Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin, Chief of the GRU Igor Kostukov, and Deputy Defence Minister Alexander Fomin. Medynsky described the current talks as a continuation of the Istanbul format of 2022, when Russia set conditions that effectively meant Ukraine's capitulation.

The negotiating team also includes representatives of the Russian presidential administration, the Foreign Ministry, the GRU, and the Ministry of Defence, who oversee information policy, international military cooperation, and humanitarian strategy. They form the technical basis of Russia's demands.

What does Russia want from Ukraine to end the war?

Medinsky's rhetoric fully reflects Putin's position: the negotiations, according to the Kremlin, should be based on the terms of the Istanbul Protocols of 2022. These include a demand for Ukraine's permanent neutrality, a ban on joining NATO, a refusal to accept foreign troops, and a strict limitation on the size of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the range of Ukrainian missiles. Russia insists that both the Kremlin and its allies should be guarantors of the agreement.

Russia voiced these proposals in the first weeks of the full-scale invasion, when its army had a tactical advantage. Today, the Russian Federation is trying to impose the same demands after three years of war, ignoring the significant losses, counter-offensives by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the de-occupation of northern Ukraine, and the slowdown in its advance on the front.

Moreover, Russia is once again appealing to the so-called "root causes" of the war — the myths of "oppression of Russian speakers" and "threats from NATO". These statements, according to Medinsky, justify the need for "regime change" in Kyiv and the restoration of pro-Russian influence. This position of the Kremlin contradicts Ukraine's peace initiative, which provides for a ceasefire first, and then diplomatic negotiations.

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War note that the Kremlin's position remained unchanged in May 2025: Russia is not interested in a bona fide peace process and continues the war with the sole purpose of occupying Ukraine. The talks in Istanbul are more an attempt to legitimise old ultimatums than a real step towards peace.

As a reminder, on May 15, the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, held a productive meeting with the President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, in Ankara. The two leaders discussed ways to bring peace, ensure security, and coordinate efforts to achieve a lasting ceasefire.

Earlier, the Head of State spoke about his action plan in Turkey and whom he plans to meet.