Demographer predicted how many refugees will return to Ukraine
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Director of the Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Ella Libanova noted that the exact numbers of the population in 20-25 years remain questionable. However, according to her, about a one-third or even half of the refugees may return to Ukraine.
The expert reported this during an interview with the German publication Der Spiegel.
Demographer's forecast
Libanova expressed her opinion on the forecasts of a possible decrease in the population of Ukraine by 10 million people by 2050, noting that such long-term forecasts are of limited use. Libanova believes that the purpose of such studies is to help the authorities predict possible losses and develop appropriate scenarios. She emphasized that one should not rely entirely on such forecasts, since the duration of the war significantly affects population dynamics.
"The key question is when the war will end, and we don't know. I can say only one thing with certainty: depopulation is inevitable. This is true even if by some miracle we manage to return the 4 million people who left the country. This is inevitable because we have an old population," the demographer explained.
According to her estimates, about a third of those who left due to the Russian invasion may return to Ukraine. She made this prediction based on the experience of armed conflicts in the former Yugoslavia in the period 1991-2001.
"If we go by the Balkan wars of the 1990s, I would say that a third will return. But I hope that there will be more, maybe half," Libanova noted.
She argued her opinion by saying that within the first ten days of the full-scale war, 200,000 men who had left peaceful countries but decided to return to their homeland, despite the war, returned to Ukraine. In addition, according to the demographer, women who could not find work abroad according to their qualifications may also decide to return.
"There will be a plan for the restoration of Ukraine, a kind of Marshall Plan. After all, our women abroad have lost their social status. They find work there, but it does not match their qualifications. This will be an incentive to return," the expert said.
It should be recalled that the Committee of the Ukrainian Parliament on Humanitarian and Information Policy unanimously supported the bill that provides for the creation of the Ministry of Demography and Diaspora.
We previously wrote that crossing the border with Germany will be complicated for Ukrainians and other foreigners. There may be situations when a person will be denied the right to enter Germany altogether due to a problem with documents or official status.
