New war realities — how Ukraine is shaping global defense

The past week has shown that global defense is undergoing fundamental changes: lasers, massive drones, and hypersonic systems are redrawing the balance of power. Ukraine is not only adapting, it is exporting technologies and tactics that are changing the doctrine of its allies.

This is stated in the column of Anatoliy Amelin, Deputy Chairman of the Board of the Defense Alliance of Ukraine, for Novyny.LIVE.

Three revolutions changing the game

Amelin identifies three mega-trends: an economic revolution in air defense driven by lasers, the mass adoption of unmanned systems, and a renewed hypersonic arms race.

Israel’s Iron Beam exemplifies the change — "a single shot costs $3–$5 versus $50k–$100k for a missile interceptor" — flipping the attack/defense cost equation and challenging attrition models.

Drones have become central: "drone-first warfare" means engagements often begin with drone reconnaissance and strikes. According to the column, AI-guided drones account for "70–80% of combat losses" in the Russia-Ukraine war, and Ukraine’s daily drone operations provide unmatched operational data.

Ukraine as a laboratory for the future

Ukraine has transitioned from recipient to exporter of defense tech and operational know-how.

"When the defense minister negotiates with the Pentagon over millions of Ukrainian drones — that is recognition of our technological leadership," writes Amelin. National defense output reportedly rose from ~$1bn in 2022 to ~$35bn in 2025, with domestic production covering a large share of drones and systems.

Accelerators like Brave1 and Defense City compress the development cycle from years to months, turning battlefield lessons into rapid upgrades and exportable products.

Opportunities and risks

Strategic opportunities include scaling exports with embedded tactics, advancing indigenous missile programs (project "Flamingo"), and expanding autonomous maritime drones. Integration with NATO systems (DELTA, Skyranger) further embeds Ukrainian tech into allied architectures.

Yet major risks persist: dependence on imported microelectronics, underutilized domestic capacity due to funding shortfalls, lagging laser capabilities that make interception economics unfavorable, growing hypersonic threats, and ethical dilemmas as AI takes a larger role in lethal decision-making — "when AI controls 70–80% of lethal strikes, we enter uncharted ethical and legal territory", the column warns.

Two possible pathways

Amelin outlines two scenarios: a pessimistic path in which Ukraine becomes a subcontractor to Western firms that scale its innovations, and an optimistic one where Ukraine builds a globally competitive defense-tech ecosystem. The outcome depends on policy choices, funding models, and the ability to institutionalize battlefield innovation.

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