The population of Ukraine will decrease significantly by 2051 — the government has made a forecast

As of mid-2024, 31.1 million people live in the government-controlled territories of Ukraine. Scientists predict a further decline in the population.

This is stated in the Demographic Development Strategy of Ukraine, published on the website of the Government of Ukraine.

Forecast of the population in the future

The document states that at the time of the 2001 census, the population of Ukraine was 48.5 million.

Estimates from the Institute of Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences show that as of January 2022, 42 million people lived in Ukraine, and as of July 2024, 35.8 million, of whom 31.1 million lived in the government-controlled areas.

The forecast also envisages further population decline. In 2041, there will be 28.9 million Ukrainians, and by 2051, the population will fall to 25.2 million.

At the same time, the government notes that the lack of data from the temporarily occupied territories, and the unpredictability of military events complicate demographic forecasts.

"The most important factor in reducing mortality and saving of human lives is the cessation of hostilities on the territory of Ukraine. But the experience of other countries shows that after the end of the war, the mortality rate may not immediately return to the pre-war level, and even under such conditions, this does not mean overcoming the factors of premature mortality that were widespread in Ukraine by February 2022," the Strategy says.

Earlier, Ella Libanova, director of the Institute of Demography, told Novyny.LIVE that the new demographic development strategy will encourage Ukrainians to have more children, but after the war. In addition, measures and ideas will be introduced to reduce premature mortality among Ukrainians.

According to Oleksandr Hladun, Deputy Director of the Institute of Demography, Ukraine is facing a demographic crisis due to the departure of a large number of young people as a result of the war. Therefore, the birth rate remains one of the key issues.